there's always a deal! >> if it's way too early, what time is it? >> well, it's time for "morning joe," but right now, look at that -- >> we put a bills' jersey on mike barnicle. >> chuck, take it away. >> all right. stalemate. another day, another impasse. and now another meeting over the debt ceiling. congressional leaders back at the white house today, but first, pressure from the president publicly. he'll make his case to the american people at a morning news conference. who blinks first? with president obama unwilling to let the country default just to make a political point, do republicans actually hold all the cards? plus, war of words. tim pawlenty makes clear who's standing in his way to the presidential nomination, or at least the first tier. he takes a swing at fellow minnesota republican, michele bachmann, and she swings right back. and oh, by the way, she's now the iowa front-runner. it's monday, july 11th, 2011.

i'm chuck todd, 7/11. let's get to my first read of the morning. we start with the big debt talk. congressional leadering returning to the table this morning, after the grand bargain broke down last saturday and a tense 75-minute meeting last night failed to move negotiations forward. at 11:00 this morning, the president will hold a news conference to press publicly for his big deal. yesterday, his top economic adviser said the u.s. is out of options. >> we make 80 million checks a month to americans, 55 million people on social security benefits, millions more americans on veterans benefits, medicare, medicaid. people who supply our troops in combat. on august 2nd, we're left with cash on hand and the cash we take in. there is no credible way to give congress more time. there's no constitutional option, there's no delay option, there's no creative financial option. they have to act by the 2nd.

>> no constitutional option, 14th amendment, off the table. here's what we know, debt talks appear to be at an impasse and here's why. the president is still pushing a big deal. democrats say the fallback plan, this $2 trillion plus package that was partially negotiated in the biden talks may not have the votes to pass. and democrats right now are enjoying what appears to be a little bit of a tense relationship between house speaker john boehner and majority leader eric cantor. here's what we don't know. when do we get to the point where somebody blinks. on the biden plan, this is what we know. they did agree to about $1.5 trillion in cuts, but what we don't know is how much more is going to go up without some sort of tax increases. as for house republicans, boehner went out there, he never publicly came out for any of these tax hikes, but behind the scenes, it was clear something was going on, but the problem was, he had no support inside his republican conference, very little support. eric cantor made that clear, and according to one democratic source from last night's

meeting, eric cantor did all the talking last night. now, yesterday, even as the grand bargain was rolled out, senate republican leader mitch mcconnell praised the president for putting entitlements on the table. >> i commend the president for putting medicare and social security on the table. he is correct in doing that. you can't have a serious deficit reduction program without dealing with those programs in the long-term. >> six months ago did anyone think the president would put social security on the table and then link spending cuts to the debt ceiling vote? the tea party has won with the argument. the question is whether they will declare victory. and right now, it doesn't appear so. jim demint this morning in an interview on the "today" show said he simply wanted to raise the debt ceiling with some cuts. he wasn't actually talking about a big debt deal anymore and instead was pushing his balanced budget amendment. where do we go from here. the president says a debt deal must be worked out in ten days.

the speaker says, quote, a package based on the work of the biden group is the most viable option at this time. but negotiators can't even agree on what that group concluded. listen to this. >> all that boehner said was, you've had a negotiation with cantor, with kyle, with biden. they've got, to a $2.4 trillion in cuts. so what he's saying is, let's go there. >> the vice president has said that we've identified about $1 trillion in savings. we are nowhere close to $2.4 trillion. and let me say this. even that trillion was contingent on an overall agreement, which meant that the republicans had to agree to some revenue component. >> okay. they're actually both talking past each other. here's what i understand what happened in those biden talks. they greed agreed to $1.5 trill pure cuts. there's another $500 billion in cuts to bring the number to $2 trillion, if republicans would agree to some loophole closures that would give them $300

billion to $400 billion. that's how you get to $2.4 trillion, put all that together. $1.5 trillion agreed, which isn't enough for a cut to cut to the debt ceiling to get another basically $1 trillion, 1 to 1 almost, to cuts in tax increases. we'll see if that can get through. finally, we have a new leader in iowa. michele bachmann has pulled ahead of mitt romney for the first time in a relevant poll in the hawkeye state. she's leading to 25% to 21% in a poll of likely gop caucasusgoers. pawlenty trails in third place with 9% of the vote. opening her iowa headquarters on saturday in urbandale, bachmann made her straw poll pitch. >> how many of you can fill a car, a bus, a wagon, a train, a sleigh?! get your skis on, get your roller skates on, get your ice skates on, but get to the straw poll in ames, iowa! >> well, for the first time, a

candidate is aggressively going after bachmann in public. on "meet the press," tim pawlenty repeated criticism of mitt romney, but he saved some of his toughest rhetoric for bachmann. >> i like congresswoman bachmann. i've campaigned for her, i respect her, but her record of accomplishment in congress is nonexistent. it's nonexistent. and so we're not looking for folks who, you know, just have a speech capabilities. we're looking for people who can lead a large enterprise in a public setting and drive it to conclusion. i've done that, she hasn't. >> bachmann responded saying, quote, instead of negativity, i want to focus on my accomplishments. we shall see, but it's clear the person standing in the way of pawlenty's ride of the first tier to becoming the first challenger to romney is michelle bachmann. back to the debt talks. congressional leaders meet with president obama again today, but not before he makes his case to the public. and with the debt limit racing towards us, do republicans hold all the cards. dick durbin is in the room, he

joins me now. senator durbin, was it a tense meeting last night? i heard it was cordial, but not as friendly as we've seen before. >> well, i think the president was very direct. you know, we met thursday, chuck, and there was a general feeling among the leaders, democrats and republicans, that we needed to do something significant to reduce this deficit and to turn this economy around and start creating jobs. we'd heard this over and over again, from our friends on the republican side. this was the moral challenge of our time. no debt ceiling extension unless we had a serious and significant deficit reduction. so we thought thursday we did. of course, it fell apart over the weekend. speaker boehner said, i can't get the votes for anything involving revenue. so now we're back down to about half or a little over half of what we originally set out to do. the president has said, and i think he's right, this is an important moment in the history of this country, where both sides need to come together and make some hard, difficult

political choices. he still feels that way, and i do too. >> well, how do you politically get the republicans to come back to the table when it comes to taxes? i mean, it seems as if they've taken that completely off the table. there's no way you get a grand bargain? >> well, that's a fact, and i don't want to try to analyze the republican caucus and how they're going to vote, butly tell you the record is very clear. when was put together a deficit submission that really had teeth, seven republican senator who is cosponsored vote against it on the floor of united states senate. when we put together an effort with vice president biden to come up with a deficit agreement, it was republican congressman eric cantor who walked out. when we thought we had a big deal going last thursday to deal with the deficit in a responsible, balanced way, it was speaker bayne who are walked away. the republicans have to stay at the table. they have to read their own speeches, they have to stick with us through some political decisions that may be difficult. >> is it fair to say, though, if

the president end up going their way again, what is the message to the democratic base? it seems that every time there's a negotiation, republicans take the harder line, and they win. >> herself the message to the democratic base. we are still committed to make certain that at the end of the day, we have four things. social security is going to be sound. guaranteeing the benefits that people paid in to for a lifetime. medicare is going to be there when our seniors and disabled people need it. we're going to make certain at the end of the day that we have a safety net for the most vulnerable people in america, and we're going to have a tax code that is progressive. so working families have a fighting chance. believe me, we couldn't guarantee any of those things without president obama's leadership. >> two things. would you be okay with getting the -- putting the balanced budget amendment for a senate floor vote and maybe push to get it past if it could get you this grand bargain with the republicans? >> no. let me tell you, i've been

through this scenario before. what people are saying in the united states senate who support the balanced budget amendment is, listen, i can't tell you that i won't steal again, but i'll vote for the ten commandments. no. that doesn't work. what we need to do is roll up our sleeves. and instead of taking a roller to a rem brant and trying to amend this constitution, can't real people sit down and make tough political decisions, rather than saying a year or two from now, we may amend the constitution. that's not responsible. >> is -- what i understand of the biden plan it's about $1.5 trillion in cuts, another $500 million will get thrown in, if another $400 billion to $500 billion of tax revenues get thrown if. is that how you get to $2.4 and can that pass the united states senate? >> well, that's roughly it. but keep in mind that a big chunk of that the republicans have proposed are cuts in medicare and medicaid. and let me tell you, many of us at the table on the democratic side have said to the

republicans, we're going to look at every single one of those. we are not going to allow you to take away the basic benefit structure of medicare, as the house republican budget did. we're going to make certain that changes in medicare and medicaid will not disadvantage people who need health care in america. the bottom line is, chuck, the republicans refuse to put a penny on the table when it comes to revenue. in other words, they would cut medicare and medicaid health care benefits, but not ask the wealthiest in america to pay one penny more in taxes. that doesn't make sense. >> and at this point, though, do you want the president to force the house republicans to vote on a plan they don't like, or do you want the president to just sign this debt ceiling raise on whatever gets through the house and senate? >> let me tell you what the president has said. this is an important country and the global economy. we have a responsibility to america. lurching month to month or every few months into this ever-ending

debate is unjustifiable. the president has said we need to step up and do what needs to be done to keep the american economy moving forward. if we falter and stumble with short-term, part-time, temporary proposals to deal with the debt ceiling, we will endanger our economy, run interest rates up, and won't have the job creation that we need in this country today. >> very quickly, what can you tell me about the relationship between speaker bayner and eric cantor last night at that meeting? >> i'm not going to analyze any republican colleagues. i'll let them speak for themselves. >> who did most of the table? >> well, eric cantor did most of the talking. >> senator dick durbin, assistant majority leader, thanks for joining me this morning. >> thank you. >> so can any credible debt deal get done without taxes on the table? and is washington missing out on a once-in-a-generation chance for possible social security reform as well? first, looking ahead at the president's schedule, it's news conference, it's debt talks, it's debt talks, and more debt

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in the debt debate, leaders of both parties are vowing not to let the u.s. default on its obligations, so who's going to blink first, and is the deal even credible without big changes? i asked comptroller general about the status of the negotiations now and what the grand idea appears and how it's probably dead. >> it's a disappointment, but it's a reality. the fact is, the good news is that both sides are now agreeing they're going to raise the debt ceiling limit, the president's now in the game. they're going to meet every day, hopefully, until they reach a

deal. but i will tell you, i think the president's now exhibiting leadership. he's got the high ground. he went for the long ball. he wanted to get a big deal done. he was willing to put medicare, medicaid, social security on the table. and now the republicans are playing small ball. to him, $2 trillion is a lot of money, but we're in a $62 trillion hole. we'll have to do a lot more on that over time. >> republicans making a mistake? >> i think they're makinge ingi mistake. i think they're looking unreasonable to independents. independents decide elections. they're playing to their base, but there's still a possibility of a win-win. it could turn out that we get a $2 trillion spending cut, $2 to 3, take us past the election, get the debt ceiling increased, so they preserve their commitment to their base that they don't raise taxes. the president gets a deal, we get it past the election, and then you go to the american people to state how are we going to put our finances in order, and there are big differences between the democrats and the republicans in that regard. >> why is it, though, that the republicans should be able to

placate their base, but democrats can't placate theirs? >> well, ultimately, when you're the chief executive officer, you have to make tough choices and you have to do what's in the interest of the united states. and, you know, ultimately, the buck stops in the executive branch. if you hit the debt ceiling limit, they're the once that are going to have to decide what's going to get paid, what's not going to get paid. and the difference between senator obama and president obama, senator obama voted against the debt ceiling increase, but now he's president and he understands what you've got to do. >> well, i guess my question on that, though, is what is it that republicans are basically -- can just wait the president out. because the president has said, we're not going to default. so they have the upper hand, because the president's not going to press the nuclear button on his end for a political point. doesn't that mean republicans can just sit here and wait him out. and is that really a good thing for the process? >> it's really not. but the bottom line is this -- you know, i can come up with $2

trillion to $3 trillion worth of cuts right now with no tax increases that ought to be acceptable to both parties when you deal with defense, when you deal with medicare premiums, when you deal with areas that they've both agreed already. indexing formulas and things of that nature. the republicans, rightly or wrongly, do not want to do anything that looks like a tax increase before the 2012 election. but the fact of the matter is, we're going to need comprehensive tax reform after the election that will end up broadening the base, reducing rates, and generating more revenues than historical levels. that's a reality. >> would you -- you're thinking about becoming an candidate for office in 2012, would you campaign -- would you be comfortable on campaigning on a $4 trillion deal that dealt with some entitlement reforms and potentially cuts and raise tax revenues? >> well, first, my position on whether or not i'm going to run hasn't changed since last time, but i will tell you this -- next week, on wednesday, july 20th, the comeback america

initiative will put out a fiscal sanity framework that will talk about how to put our nation's finances in order with everything on the table, entitlement reforms, defense and other spending cuts, and comprehensive tax reform that will raise more revenue. and i would have no problem, whatsoever, running on that, because it's a winner with independents and it's what this country needs to do in order to create a better future. >> very quickly, on your political plans, if you run, is it as a republican? >> look, i have not even decided, a, whether i'm going to run, and what i would run as. right now i'm focused on the debt ceiling limit, i'm focused on the comeback america initiative, and i'll let you know when i end up making my mind on torre. >> david walker, former comptroller of the united states, thanks for coming on. >> good to be with you. up next, a fragile economy coupled with default looming, how does wall street react to that? a check before the bell. and still come, a warning

from sarah palin to speaker john boehner. first, our trivia question, in 43 of the last 45 presidential elections, at least one state with ten or more electoral college votes has changed its presidential party preferences from the previous election. so which state has flipped the most times? tweet me @chucktodd o or @dailyright nowdown. a kudos and a shout-out to who gave me the trivia question coming up on "the daily rundown." a whole new life! with aveeno nourish plus moisturize. active naturals wheat formulas target and help repair damage in just 3 washes. for softer, stronger... ... hair with life. [ female announcer ] nourish plus. only from aveeno. for softer, stronger... ... hair with life. ♪ [ cat meows ] ♪ [ whistles ] ♪ [ cat meows ]

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risk. they think a deal will be reached. but i'll tell you what is pressuring stalks this morning. that's more concern about what's happening in europe. we've been hearing an awful lot about italy now. last week we saw some big changes in some of the debt predictions there, and some of the things that have been blowing out. a lot of concern now that the situation that started in europe is now spreading to italy, and that's where we're watching concerns. red ink not only here on wall street, but also in europe where they're actively trading too. we do have big things coming on this week, including earnings from all of the big dow components. that kicks off today with alcoa's earnings. we'll be continuing to hear more about this through the week. and the expectation from a lot of traders we talked to this morning is that if we can get wall street to focus on some of the company specifics, which are expected to be a lot better than some of that overall economic news, that that could be something that could turn things around. but right now it looks like the dow's going to open down by about triple digits. a lot of pressure this morning, and again, that's all about europe. chuck, back over to you.

>> becky quick at cnbc's world headquarters, thanks very much. >> thank. on the front lines, the secretary of defense turns up the heat on the iraqi government as rockets fly towards the green zone. we'll get a live report from baghdad next. plus, remembering betty ford. the former first lady known for speaking her mind and her personal struggles. a look at how betty ford changed millions of lives, maybe the most famous for it. by the way, when i hear alcoa, does anybody else remember alcoa presents fantastic finishes, one of the greatest nfl advertising promos ever. ♪ ooh baby, looks like you need a little help there ♪

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bottom of the hour now, a quick look at what's driving the day. president obama will take questions from the press this morning, ahead of this afternoon's white house debt talks. the third such meeting since last thursday. today, the president and other democrats asked eric cantor and jon kyl to come up with a version of the biden plan that they claimed can pass both house

and the senate. in iowa, republican presidential hopefuls ramp up their game plan. is that straw poll or something coming up in a month? and the opening bell has just rung on wall street. investors are preparing for second quarter earnings that kick off today. a few other stories making headlines. developing news out of syria right now, where witnesses say protesters loyal to president bashar al assad from broken in into the syrian capital in damascus. this is days after u.s. delegates visited the capital. another shocker from the now defunct british tabloid, the "news of the world." britain's "daily mirror" reports that "news of the world" journalists tried to hack the phone records of 9/11 victims, and the scandal is now

jeopardizing rupert murdoch'sed by to buy bskyb. a brutal weekend in mexico as violence between rival drug gangs kills at least 40 people in the last 36 hours. the violence included ten bodies found decapitated in northern mexico. more than 40,000 have died as a part of drug violence in mexico in the last five years. i'll repeat that number -- more than 40,000 have died. as the crew of the space shuttle "atlantis" gets to work in space today, some good news from the ground. nasa says it is no longer concerned about a piece of space junk due to fly by the international space station tomorrow. new defense secretary leon panetta spent the weekend in war zones, first meeting with president karzai, and then avoiding insurgent rockets in iraq, where today he is meeting with iraqi officials about the fate of u.s. troops scheduled to leave that country by the end of the year.

jim miklaszewski is traveling with the new secretary. mik, the sofa agreement, the idea all of u.s. forces out by the end of this year, that's going to get extended? >> reporter: nobody knows quite yet, because the rairaqis themselves haven't made the decision and haven't made the request to the u.s. to extend that deadline. you know, i can tell you, secretary of defense, leon panetta, this has been quite a maiden voyage to him, expressed his frustration to the troops here today we by saying, dammit, make a decision, to the iraqis. and the problem, of course, here is that the u.s. starting to withdraw many of their forces, and they don't want to wait too long, because once they start tearing things down, they don't want to have to put it together again if the iraqis finally make that choice. and we're told, of course, that the white house, president obama and certainly secretary panetta

are leaning toward providing additional forces for additional security and training here in iraq past the deadline. again, there are some political problems here in baghdad, some decisions that prime minister maliki has to make. he's under tremendous pressure. eventually, it will get there. people here think. but it's got to happen sooner than later. >> and mik, in afghanistan, what was the meeting -- what did you learn about the meeting between secretary panetta and president karzai? >> reporter: i think what came out of that was the fact that it was cordial. you know, the meetings that president karzai has had with other u.s. officials recently hasn't really been all that friendly. you know, president karzai has given long-winded speeches about civilian casualties and the like, with the u.s., including the former defense secretary, robert gates, sitting right next to him. but what came out of that meeting was a sense of cardialty that had been missing to some

extent in that u.s./afghan relationship. panetta says he believes that things are on course for a successful conclusion to the u.s. military operations there in afghanistan, still set to end at the end of 2014. and by the way, you know, the u.s. has also decided to withhold $800 million in military aid to pakistan right next door, because there's been some tension, obviously, since the killing of bin laden. but what happened is that panetta said, we've got to show them that this has to be a two-way street in this relationship. and they feel like this could force pakistan to stepping up to the plate and k being more aggressive in trying to take out those safe havens on the border. >> we shall see. jim miklaszewski traveling with the new secretary of defense, leon panetta. stay safe in your travels, my

friend. >> reporter: okay, chuck. she may have been first lady for less than three years, but what a legacy. betty ford is one of the nation's most beloved first ladies. she broke preconceived notions of that role, always speaking her mind, and after politics, she left her most well-known and lasting impact of helping get rid of the stigma associated with addiction. so who better to help us remember the former first lady of the united states than dooris kearns goodwin. nice to see you. >> thank you, chuck. >> she may be more familiar with most americans living today than the former president. >> indeed. during the election campaign in 1976, they had buttons that said "elect betty's husband," showing how powerful she had become, even then. i think the most important thing is that time and again, she withstood adversity. she came through trials of fire and used the bully pulpit of the first ladyship to help other

people through those kinds of situations. starting back in the '60s, when she had a sense of purposelessness as a suburban wife, she talked to a psychiatrist. she had a radical mastectomy after months of being in the presidency with her husband, and she talked about at a time when it was a real stigma. and she encouraged, i guess, tens of thousands of people to go and get breast examinations, and even to have faith in the operation. and then, of course, after the presidency was over, when she herself suffered depression again, painkillers and alcohol, she set up the betty ford center. 75,000 people having gone through that center. it's an extraordinary legacy. >> it really is. doris, let me play a little clip from an interview that betty ford did with ann curry. take a listen. >> if the first lady can have breast cancer, maybe i could. and the same thing with the disease of alcoholism and addiction. i'm delighted that i could carry a message. i think that's what we're here

on this earth for, to help others. and if you can, you ought to do it. >> so we talk about what she's done in helping get rid of the stigma on addiction. and you brought up a little bit on the breast cancer, but that in many cases was the indelible image for so many americans then. >> oh, absolutely. we forget how much -- how difficult it was back then to talk about cancer. >> there were no ribbons. >> for people to have the conversations that we have now. >> yeah, there were no pink ribbons at the time. >> absolutely. you know, the other thing she did, she fought for the equal rights amendment at a time when most conservative republicans were against it. she said that roe v. wade allowed people to have abortions in hospitals instead of the backwoods. and they teased her, and her husband saying, you're going to lose him a lot of votes, especially when she went on "60 minutes," and she honestly said, she wouldn't be shocked if her daughter at 17 had an affair, if her kids smoking marijuana.

it was said that her husband threw a pillow at her, saying, i'm going to lose 20,000 votes because of you, but he teased her and loved her nonetheless. >> she was dealing with something that a lot of working women deal with right now, being away from home, having to raise kids by themselves sometimes, because they had a father who was always traveling to washington at the time. >> that's right. in fact, when betty ferdan wrote her famous book about women's problems during that period of time, it really was talking about a life like betty's at the time. four children, living in the suburbs, very little sense of her own identity, and her husband gone all time. and it was then that she sought that psychiatric help and found a certain purpose. and i think when she got to the first ladyship, al of these problems that she had endured, and to some extented conquered and were still fighting for, could make public. that's when you use that bully pulpit and platform in a very positive way. so little wonder she's remembered so positively today. >> doris kearns goodwin, i know

i got you today, because this is the one of two days a year during the baseball season where there's no baseball. >> it's true. it feels empty. i'm so glad to talk about something. >> all right, doris, thanks for coming on. and mrs. ford's going to be laid to rest next to her husband in grand rapids at the ford presidential museum. all right, up next, the perfect political panel to break down the ins and outs of the debt stalemate. is and tim pawlenty's decision to lash out at michele bachmann. and sarah palin putting a little threat on john boehner. and what's going on behind closed doors between bayner and cantor? but first, the white house soup of the day. 15 beans. more beans than debt plans. to keep in balance after 50,

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'80s flashback complete with the sounds of the '80s. in this day in 1987, a major milestone for the human race, the world's population reached the 5 billion mark. today, the human population continues to raise, toting an estimated 7 billion people. so there. but yet it feels like a small town. wow, really, we're going to do hair bands all week? anyway, congressional leaders return to the white house this morning. republicans were told to bring a plan to the meeting spelling out how they can achieve $2.5 trillion in deficit reduction. the senate republican leader says he has a con ttingency pla if talks fail, but he hasn't revealed what that is. >> nobody's talking about raising the debt ceiling. >> so are. >> dan bowles is a political correspondent at "the washington post." he wrote about the debt negotiation on sunday. karen finney is a msnbc political analyst and former dnc communications director, and

major garrett, a national correspondent. major, let me start with you, you heard about what cantocantor -- i you know, what cantor and kyle were supposed to bring to the meeting, you heard that cantor did most of the talking. who's in charge right now? >> the rank and file house republicans. >> not the leadership? >> there's much less sense between the two of them than was represented. boehner tried to reach for something bigger. you saw in an editorial in "the wall street journal" on saturday the perils of doing this. the risk of taking tax reform downstream in exchange for tax concessions up-front. that's simply not a salable proposition for house republicans, who are very skeptical about their party's ability to negotiate a hard and fast deal that delivers tax reform and shields them from tax increases. all that underlying suspicion creates very real problems for boehner and, not incidentally, for cantor.

>> dan, you wrote on sunday, some republicans said that obama had handled the negotiations in a way that no matter the outcome, would help him politically by putting cuts and entitlements into the discussion obama had moved himself closer to the center and demonstrated he's trying to bring the two parties together. i've heard this argument about the president is winning the process fight. but republicans will argue that on the issues, the middle still doesn't want their taxes raised. >> well, sure. most people don't want their taxes raised, but i think people want to see washington work. i think the president, first of all, i think the president and speaker boehner wanted a big deal. i think they were genuine in that effort. but i think that the president in not blinking first on the big deal with legitimately argue to people that he was prepared to make some sacrifices that republicans with were not prepared to make on their side. and politically, that may be salable. i think the big question, the bigger question is, if washington laooks dysfunctional

that's going to affect ft. as well as it's going to affect the congress. >> karen finney, are we in a situation, again, how's the democratic base going to react to the fact that republicans draw a firmer line in the sand than democrats do and republicans get their way every time, whether it was on the cr, whether it was on extending the bush tax cuts, everything the president said he wasn't for, he eventually signs on to, including, by the way, spending cuts connected to the debt ceiling vote, which he had ruled out. when do the base say, this guy stinks at negotiating? >> i think they've been saying that for some time. i think that's why nancy pelosi and those in the house have been emboldened. they've been hearing from the base who is screaming, jumping up and down saying, this guy has given away the store before he even sat down to the table. ironically, though, it may be in the end that obama ends up being the smartest guy after all. because he went out there with the big idea, boehner's the guy who couldn't get the votes. so as long as in the final deal he doesn't totally -- i'll say

it -- screw over the base and ends up with something that's a little bit more livable, he goats moderates and independents and gets the democrats. >> major, i'm stunned that we have not seen one republican break ranks from the leadership to say, hey, he's talking about $4 trillion in cuts, fine. tom coburn, for instance, would be a guy who i might think -- who broke and signed on to the bowles/simpson plan. they've shown remarkable discipline, haven't they? >> yes, but here's the essential problem. everything right now is written in water. >> well put. >> nobody has a detail on anything. you can talk in this town all you want about a consensus for spending cuts in ten years. let me see the details and votes behind that. because it's untested. it's all theoretical. and i'm telling you, there's a phrase in the movie "the shawshank redemption," get busy living or get busy dying. we better get business living or we'll get business defaulting. until you get details, you have

no idea, really, where these coalitions are. there's a sense that they can't do it, but until we start voting and getting real details on paper, all of this -- >> i was just going to say, the president has said, he's not going to press the nuclear button. and by him not saying that, doesn't that automatically, basically incentivize the republicans to wait him out? >> up to a point. but there's a price to be made for waiting and waiting and waiting. i mean, there's a point at which this gets beyond political maneuvering or sticking close -- >> but it only does if they let it go? i mean, that's the weird thing here. there's only -- i mean, nobody wants to test that. >> major's absolutely right. you don't know what's going to be in this deal until we really see it, and then people are going to have to decide whether they're going to be for it or against it. but the longer we go on in these kind of -- people dug into their positions of being afraid to go against their base or being unwilling to make any compromises, we're going to be up against it -- >> i'm going to pause you there. we're going to come back.

i'll let you get your thought in after the break. stick around, we've got to talk a little presidential politics. trivia time, by the way. in 43 of the last 45 presidential elections, at least one state with ten or more electoral college votes has changed its presidential party preference from the previous election. which has changed the most times? it was new york. it has switched its presidential vote in 22 of the last 45 elections. thanks to our friends for doing that. follow those guys at smartpolitics. and i've got a whole bunch of state-by-state analysis. i've got to plug this book every once in a while, "how barack obama won." we're just plugging away. we'll be right back with more from our panel as sarah palin plots her next move. ♪ ♪ ♪ look at that car, well, it goes fast ♪

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let's bring back our panel.

karen, i was interrup]yog. i'll let you get that thought in before i change the subject. >> sure. all i was saying was interestingly, i went back to that time. tee, debt ceiling, what's going to happen with the debt, republicans walk away from the table. then7oo gingerich and clinton wn back to a deal.çó ey i mean, we have seen movie before. >> except oé differenceírñ majo newt gingerich had much more  republican h had much more conference than john boe %ip &h% did. he provides over the conference, r lead t(them. >> many republicans back then looked att( king rich as the person who brought them to

>> all right. i want to move to the presidential race. tim pawlenty yesterday on meet the pretty was asked about mitch bachmann and her moves. and he went -- i'm hoping we have the clip up. let's hear what he said about michele bachmann and whether or not she's qualified to be president. okay. what we don't have that. i will let that go. but he basically -- >> i like her, i think she's terrific, but she doesn't have any experience. what did it tell you, though, that he's hitting michellebackman frankly now harder than michelle romney? >> it was clear on friday that he's focused in on her. he talked -- when he talked to eye wants there, iowa is first in the nation caucuses are not just a privilege, they are a responsibility. and when you are cast ago vote, think about whether the person you are cast ago vote for can win the presidency and serve as president. i mean, he never mentioned bachmann at all. >> wow. >> but it was very clear what he's up to. >> obviously, democrats are gleeful of this idea of michele

bachmann coming out of iowa and not a tim pawlenty. but is there ever a careful what you wish for when you watch this? >> absolutely. >> do you ever sit there and tell your democratic friends, you know, lay off too much. >> absolutely. makes me think of ronald reagan. everybody said, an actor, that would be great. in 2007, 2008, people were asking chairman dean and the dnc, who do you want on the republican side? and we were like, let's not put our hopes on anyone because you never know what would happen and who would have thought that john mccain would have been the last one standing? >> one quick note, tim pawlen pawlenty's elected is -- iowa elects their favorites. >> but in such with that, the cover of news week is sarah

palin. i could win, and yet there's tons of caveat. but she had a threat that to john boehner. how influential is this presidential campaign on the debt negotiations? >> i think the debt negotiations live in an atmosphere largely of its own. but it's a deal that the republican presidentials don't. >> what happens? >> i don't think that pressure is nearly as strong as it would appear on a normal cycle with heavyweight contenders. >> all right. the shameless plug, i'm going to do them for you. people need to be reading first take. is that right? >> no. the take. but i was going to shamelessly plug my colleague's espionage novel, "blood money." >> he's a novelist? >> it's scary, because it's probably a lot of truth. >> i'm way over. shameless plug? >> quick tuesday in the hill. check that. >> there it is. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown" and

"shameless plug." coming up next on msnbc, chris jansing and company. we'll see you at 11:00, in one hour for the presidential news conference. here is your business travel forecast on this monday. strong thunderstorms are rolling through some big cities in the ohio valley during the day today that could cause airport delays. especially around chicago, indianapolis, detroit, maybe even cleveland late today. it's hot new mexico areas of the country. it's hard to avoid the heat. the west coast is slightly cooler. enjoy. oh hi! we get double miles every time we use our card. and since double miles add up fast... one more chariot please. ...we can bring the whole gang! i cannot tell a lie. he did it. right... it's hard to beat double miles! read my lips -- no new axes! [ male announcer ] get the venture card from capital one,

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